Over the last several years, baseball has gone through a cataclysmic shift in how the game is viewed. While traditional numbers – batting average, home runs, runs batted in – have been celebrated throughout the history of the game, it’s the new advanced numbers that are making their impact felt.

One of those numbers is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). It’s, essentially, an all-encompassing statistic that attempts to compile all of a player’s (or team’s) contributions into a single number. The higher the number, the better the player (or team). Well, the early numbers are out for the Dodgers.


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This is just an early look at the Wins Above Replacement projection, via Carson Cistulli (@cistulli), for the Dodgers:

The numbers themselves are courtesy of Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski), the creator of ZiPS (SZymborski Projection System).

If you go off the numbers listed above, Clayton Kershaw is headed towards his second straight 8+ WAR season and fourth straight 7+ WAR season. Kershaw’s projection is so absurd that Szymborski had this to say:

Among the other interesting things to note is that Yasiel Puig, the combination of Andre Ethier and Scott Van Slyke, and the combination of Yasmani Grandal and A.J. Ellis each are projected for 4+ WAR. Free agent acquisitions Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda are each projected for roughly 3+ WAR.

The most shocking thing, though? Corey Seager.

If Szymborski’s cryptic tweet here is to be taken at face value, then Seager is projected to have a monster season.

Either way, this would put the Dodgers at about 46 Wins Above Replacement just based on the numbers we’ve seen. To put that into perspective, the Kansas City Royals finished with 38.3 WAR on their way to a World Series win in 2015.

Last season, the Dodgers produced 49.1 WAR. Once again, this is just a projection. The real season has to be played, but, for now, it looks like the Dodgers are going to be a very dangerous squad yet again.

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6 Responses

  1. Tmaxster

    Thanks for the information. This is all fun stuff waiting for Spring and the start of the baseball year. I am concerned about back-up for SS and the pasted together Infield in general with 2nd base we are depending on Utley who hit .212 last year and I like Kike as a super sub. Although his enthusiasm is contagious. 
    I am very hopeful for the Bull Pen there are some dynamic arms in there and some great choices for long relief etc. I think if Wood is not traded he will end up as odd man out and join the BP. His funky dleivery drives guys crazy especially in short sampling. 
    I am very concerned with Grandal and Turner coming back from surgery. I imagine those questions will be answered in the Spring. 
    As Micah Johnson has a chance to make them use him at 2nd I would guess we will see his best in AZ. I hope it is good enough to crack the roster. He actually has some speed a component we desperately missed after they wrongfully traded Gordon.

    It is a shame we have to waste roster spots on Crawford and Guerrero. We will see what the Spring brings hopefully some trades to clear out a few guys. 
    I am hoping Thompson is electric and he earns a spot in the Out Field.  Spring this year will be interesting.

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