In the latest news regarding the Dodgers and Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, the parties can’t agree on who is going to the Twin Cities alongside Jose De Leon, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports.

Heyman said the teams have been negotiating for weeks, but talks may be at an impasse. Both teams want to headline the deal with De Leon, but are struggling with the rest of the deal, or as Heyman said, the “second and possibly third pieces.”

The Twins are comfortable keeping Dozier, a source told Heyman. Dozier is scheduled to participate in a fan fest in late January. The Dodgers have other options, namely Ian Kinsler and Logan Forsythe, but cutting off Dozier talks provides the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays leverage they didn’t previously have.

Heyman said Minnesota initially wanted Cody Bellinger in the trade, but that request went nowhere. The Twins have a “pitching-heavy” list of prospects they’d accept, but the names don’t line up with the Dodgers’ preferences.

Yadier Alvarez and Walker Buehler, two high-ranking pitching prospects in the Dodgers system, are unlikely to be included. Heyman said “some believe” L.A. prefers both to De Leon.

A trade between the cross-league foes remains the best avenue for both front offices. Dozier addresses the Dodgers’ two most glaring weaknesses, while Minnesota can decorate its rebuild with high-end pitching, including a potential front line starter in De Leon.

Putting the Dodgers luxury tax bill into perspective

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42 Responses

  1. AlwaysCompete

    Dozier is certainly an upgrade, but not worth an overpay.  The Twins can continue to have their SP with a 5++ ERA, and win 70 games, and then lose Dozier in two years.  Time to move on.  I would not want to include any of JDL/Buehler/Alveraz or Bellinger for him. I would still accept a trade for Brandon Phillips for one year and see if Willie Calhoun improves defensively next year.

    But if the FO wants to go bold, take a look at Josh Harrison and maybe Andrew McCutcheon from the Bucs.  Harrison hits LHP very well, and plays a decent 2B.  He has a two year guaranteed contract totaling $17.5M, with 2 one year club options; $10.5M with a $1M buyout (2019), and $11.5M with a $500K buyout (2020).  He is two months younger than Dozier.  If they could get a package with McCutcheon they should try.  McCutcheon has one year guaranteed for $14M with a club option for 2018 at $14.5M with a $1M buyout.  Maybe 2016 was an outlier and he returns to AS form.

    Yangervis Solarte is supposedly available from the Pads.  It certainly would not take JDL to get him.  A J Preller needs to build up his credibility again so he is not going to insist on an overpay.

    Maybe they just go all out and get Braun who kills LHP, and live with an Utley re-sign and Chris Taylor/Charlie Culberson/Kike’ Hernandez platoon.  The bottom line is that there are legit choices that do not require a big overpay for a 2 year 2B.  If the Twins do not want a 1 for 1 JDL for Dozier, stop all future discussions.

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  2. Danielsocal

    I wouldn’t give away the farm either. Rumor has it that team up north is interested in Dozier too. Last year they committed tons of money on pitchers, now if they want to trade their prospects let em! Our stratedy is long term and takes commitment, patience and restraint. And it will help us beat the team from the north for years to come!!

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  3. Arodc03

    Twins asking price for Dozier is too high. Let SF give up the farm for Dozier. There will be other top 2B players available for a trade come trade deadline, 2017. In the mean time Dodgers can get by with signing Utley and platooning others.

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  4. yarritsblake

    Everyone here is in complete agreement.  If the Twins are asking JDL and other major pieces, forget about it.  I’m already somewhat hesitant if JDL is the starting point anyways.  Explore Phillips.  Explore Forsythe.  Heck, AlwaysCompete makes a good point about Harrison+Cutch.  The Pirates are not going anywhere fast and I’d be more ok having JDL, Verdugo and Calhoun act as the jumping off point for that deal.  I’d rather see Phillips or Forsythe and a Braun deal, but hey, I can’t be too picky.  If not, sign Utley.  He gave us 2.0 WAR with excellent defense and just barely below league average offense.  Plus, can’t complain about his work ethic influence and veteran presence.  Plus he is a SoCal guy.

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  5. Blue58

    Braun is too costly after the free agent signings. The price for McCutcheon would be higher than that for Dozier. Solarte may be the fallback, but the Padres will have the leverage in that deal a well. Bottom line is the Dodgers need a right handed power hitter to pass the Cubs (and maybe keep up with the Nats and Giants) and it’s not looking good.

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  6. Arodc03

    My point is that the Dodgers don’t need to make big trade right now. The key is playing well enough during the season to get into the playoffs then making those key acquisitions to improve the team to make a strong run at the playoffs.
    I.e., Cubs acquired Chapman, Indians acquired Miller right before the playoffs. Cubs gave up some top talent for renting Chapman, a gamble that paid off and no one in Cubs land cares who they gave up because they won the WS. Didn’t work out for the Indian but damn they were one game away for winning it.

    Reply
  7. BCRobitaille

    yarritsblake Agree. Don’t won’t any part of a Dozier deal for the rumored price tag. As you said, I’d be hesitant if all it included was JDL, let alone more pieces. The guy had a career year but his HR total will surely go down playing in Dodgers stadium. He’s also a career .240/320/.430 hitter. No thanks. I’d like to see them give Micah Johnson a shot but i don’t think the Dodgers have much faith in him, plus he bats LH so that doesn’t help their current lineup.

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  8. AlwaysCompete

    Blue58  Not wanting to be confrontational or argumentative, but if
    there are no current players on the 40-man that hit LH pitching like Braun (and
    there are not), none on the next tier of AAA/AA talent (and there are none), and
    you are not willing to trade prospects for that missing piece(s), how do you
    plan on “passing the Cubs and keeping up with the Nats and Giants”?  Are you confident that the WS can be reached
    with a Puig/Toles platoon in RF, Ethier/SVS platoon in LF, Pederson/Thompson
    platoon in CF, Utley and Hernandez/Taylor/Culberson platoon at 2B.  LAD is not going to trade Kershaw, Seager, or
    Urias.  They cannot trade
    Hill/Jansen/Turner until at least June.  The
    roster has clones of SVS and Ruf, and clones of Hernandez, Taylor, and
    Culberson.   LAD cannot get any kind of return for
    Kazmir/McCarthy/AGon (contract)/Ethier (10 & 5 no trade).  That would leave Grandal/Barnes (not both), Maeda,
    Wood, Stripling, Stewart, and the bullpen (that also needs tweaking) as potential
    trade pieces on the 25 man. 

    Why would the Dodgers be stronger without a good RH hitter
    at 2B and/or OF, but with a list of Kazmir/McCarthy/Wood/Stripling/Stewart/
    JDL/De Jong/Oaks/Ryu all vying for the #5 man in the rotation; and with
    Buehler/Alveraz/Sborz/Sopko/Barlow/Abdullah right behind in 1-2 years?  They all cannot pitch for LAD at the same
    time.  The next three position players up
    are all LH hitters.  If there is a
    surplus of one commodity (ML Ready RHP, LH hitting position players), but a
    scarcity of something else (RH hitting 2B and OF), you make a trade; the best
    you can.  That is why LAD traded Cotton,
    Montas and Holmes for Hill/Reddick.  Many
    (if not most) considered this an overpay. 
    Hill/Reddick were supposed to give LAD a better chance to win in 2016
    than the three RHP prospects.  Cotton was
    passed by Stripling/Stewart/JDL, and Holmes was passed by at least 4 pitchers,
    leaving Montas the one pitcher LA could use this year.  IMO, LAD would be better with Braun than with
    Puig/JDL (or Stewart)/McCarthy (or Kazmir)/and one other prospect not named
    Bellinger.  That closely resembles what
    was reported as trying to be finalized last year.  Everybody has favorites so somebody is always
    going to be upset with a trade.

    Reply
  9. yarritsblake

    BCRobitaille Arodc03 They don’t, but by all means, I am fine with them giving up Panik, Arroyo, Beede and others to completely make their system almost as barren as the Angels, all for a good, but not great 2B that wouldn’t be an upgrade over Panik in the long-term.

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  10. yarritsblake

    Blue58 How is Braun too costly?  As far as we know the deal for Braun at the waiver-deadline was going to be Puig, McCarthy, Stewart, and Calhoun.  Why would Braun all of a sudden be untouchable?  The new luxury tax penalties do not take effect until next year.  Braun is set to make $19 million in 2017 and 2018, $18 million in 2019, and $16 million in 2020.  He does have a mutual $15 million option in 2021, but I can see him saying no in an attempt to grab a two year contract to get his last little bundle of cash before retiring.  Now, we only really have to worry about 2018 and 2019 in terms of $$$ for the team.  However, going back in the deal would be Puig ($6.5 million 2017, $7.5 in 2018, and ARB eligible in 2019), and McCarthy ($10 million in 2017, 2018, and $5 million 2019) or Kazmir ($8 million 2018-2021).  The almost completely offsets the cost of Braun’s contract.  Plus all the money coming off the books in after 2017 and 2018 means we don’t have to worry at all.  And given that Braun’s contract is actually well-below what his market value would be on the open market now, I’d say he is a bargain.

    Cutch’s cost may have been high, and may still be.  But I get the feeling with how discontent Cutch seems with the Pirates openness and stated attempts to trade him, the cost may come down as both parties may want to “move on” as quickly as possible (think Danny Espinosa, but to a lesser degree).  I still do not think Cutch is the best answer.  I still think Braun is the better answer to our RHB problem.  We need him desperately to round out our lineup.

    Reply
  11. BCRobitaille

    AlwaysCompete Blue58  True, the Dodgers have a surplus of prospects and a need at 2nd base. But still, you can’t overpay to the extent where you make a horrible trade. I don’t think the drop off between Dozier and Forsythe is that much, and Forsythe would not cost nearly as much in return.

    I think it all depends on how you view theses guys. Personally, I think JDL has a shot to be real good and he got kind of lost behind Julio with his hype, and for good reason. But when you look at how he did in AAA his last few years and what kind of potential he has, I dream of a future rotation with CK, Hill, Julio, JDL, and Maeta (or whoever.) If the Dodgers can get a deal for Dozier centered-around Calhoun and some others, fine, whatever. Perhaps Stewart or Stripling and another mid/lower level guy (Diaz/Barnes?) or maybe even someone who is MLB ready now (SVS?).

    I’d still prefer them to just go after Forsythe. It’s a combination of being high on JDL and not sold on Dozier. If Kinsler didn’t have a no-trade clause and demand an extension, I wouldn’t mind the Dodgers going after him either.

    Reply
  12. yarritsblake

    BCRobitaille yarritsblake The problem with Micah Johnson is that 1) as you said he is a LHB, and that doesn’t help our struggles against lefties, and 2) he doesn’t offer anything more than what Utley would offer.  I’d rather roll with Utley in a soft-platoon again over Johnson.  He had a really marginal showing at AAA last season, where he saw his AVG, BB%, wRC+, and wOBA all pretty significantly drop off, and his K% increase.  That and he is now even more removed from his speedster years in the minors.  I just don’t see him as more than 40 man roster depth at this point.

    Reply
  13. yarritsblake

    BCRobitaille AlwaysCompete Blue58 Kinsler was my man until the reports came out about the whole no-trade list and his extension demands to waive that to the Dodgers.  No thanks bud I’ll pass.  I was fine with Dozier while the rumors were still about Calhoun and Stewart, but once they became JDL + Calhoun and Stewart, I said no thanks as well.  Let’s look at Forsythe, and if his cost is too much pass and try Brandon Phillips.  Remember we tried to go for him, and he said he’d waive his no-trade for the Dodgers.  He wouldn’t cost much at all.

    Reply
  14. BCRobitaille

    yarritsblake BCRobitaille His numbers did drop last year but look at the previous 3 seasons… he put up great numbers. So you just have to wonder if he just got “bad” all of a sudden or maybe just had an off year. I think the potential is still there. I’m not one to write off guys after a one, when they have a bigger track record that can be looked at. Look and Andrew Toles. The guy was written off and came out of nowhere to be a key player for the Dodgers last year, and has a chance to be their starting LF this year.
    Utely did a pretty good job considering everything last year, but I really don’t want him back next year. He’s getting older, and we saw the drop off in production in the 2nd half and playoffs. Johnson would be cheaper for one, and would be bring more to the table, both offensively and defensively. But this is probably all insignificant anyway… i still think the Dodgers will pursue a RH bat at 2nd. I just hope it’s not Dozier for the reported package it would take to land him.

    Reply
  15. AlwaysCompete

    yarritsblake BCRobitaille AlwaysCompete Blue58 JDL plus anyone is an overpay for Dozier…agreed.  Walk away.  I am also not that big of a fan of Forsythe.  Good player, just not at the cost of prospects the Rays would demand.  If they want to include Colome, then let the negotiations begin.  If Kinsler waives no trade without extension that would be a very good option.  But my two choices are Josh Harrison and Yangervis Solarte.  My dream is Jonathan Villar.

    My plan Z would be Brandon Phillips for one year to gauge the development of Willie Calhoun.  It may work out, or it could work into a one year decision deferral.

    No matter what the option, the Dodgers do have to improve at 2B.  If they can get Braun, the option at 2B does not have to be as prolific.  If they can get Braun, I would be fine with Braun and Solarte/Phillips.  If no Braun, they need Kinsler and keep Puig.

    Reply
  16. ElysianPark

    Two years of Dozier is not a good deal, not for DeLeon. And the Twins are selling high on him. I could see him dropping to 20 HR with the Dodgers. He is not a high avg. guy and not a Gold Glove-type large defender. He is a good player, not a great one. So, he is not worth someone who could be a top-of-the-like starter, plus others.
    The Giants’ reported interest is probably fabricated to make the Dodgers pull the trigger. Why would the Giants trade a big package (which they could not afford) for only two years of a player who will cost them several million more than Panik would? That is NOT the kind of deal the Giants would make–they are supposedly maxed out on their salaries right now. Either the Giants or the Twins floated this idea. And it is probably the Twins.
    Just because the Dodgers have a slew of pitching prospects doesn’t mean they can afford to be fleeced.

    Reply
  17. Blue58

    AlwaysCompete Blue58 Apparently, I was not clear. I agree with your analysis almost entirely. The Dodgers need right handed power. Braun would be a good addition, but I think the Dodgers are now unwilling to take on his salary. That’s what I meant by too costly.

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  18. yarritsblake

    BCRobitaille yarritsblake I see your point man.  Johnson was in 2015 ranked the #5 2B prospect in the majors and #2 in 2014.  He has a decent hit tool.  Shoot, if he can win the job in Spring Training (provided we don’t trade for a 2B) I have no problem letting him have the job.  I just hope he brings his speed element back as it was a bigger part of his prospect star a couple years back.  I would be fine bringing Utley back.  You forget he still gave us 2.0 WAR last year, which was the same as guys like Schoop, Panik, Odor, and Harrison.  I did say that the only way I’d bring Utley back is on a less expensive deal than last year ($5 million seems fine to me) and do a soft platoon with Kike at 2B.  Utley tired out down the stretch because he did play 138 games, which definitely tuckered him out.

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  19. Blue58

    yarritsblake Blue58 I’m pretty sure Braun would push the Dodgers into the 90% luxury tax category next season unless they can offload some other big salaries. They clearly wish to avoid that. We don’t know all the parameters of the deadline discussion and there is at least one report that it was not as near to completion as originally reported. In any case, it’s doubtful anyone will take McCarthy until he shows in spring training that he has recovered enough from surgery to throw strikes. His last few appearances were terrible. Same with Kazmir. They might be able to trade one or both, but not until March, I suspect.

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  20. Blue58

    I’m not saying Dozier is necessarily the answer, and we’re all just speculating about who might be included in a trade other than DeLeon. But it’s pretty apparent the Dodgers need a dependable right hand hitter to slot between Seager and Gonzalez. Turner, with his reverse tendencies against lefties, is not the answer. Puig seems to worsen offensively with every season. 

    If they take essentially the same team into the season that lost to the Cubs, it is a tough climb to the World Series. There would have to be dramatic offensive improvements from Puig, Thompson or Hernandez, or all of them. Yes, they could trade at the deadline, but there’s no reason to believe the cost in prospects would be any less then than now.

    AlwaysCompete makes an excellent point about the lack of right handed power in the farm system. The Dodgers are going to have to trade some minor league talent to get that right hand hitter. It’s fun to discuss who that might be, but in the end we have to trust that the front office will make the right choice.

    It’s also worth keeping in mind that most prospects never work out as major leaguers. Micah Johnson, who was mentioned here, is a good example. He hit a ton in the minor leagues, won the starting job at second for the White Sox, flamed out and was traded. He went into a tailspin last  year and now has been virtually written off. The White Sox made the right choice in trading him. The Dodgers made the wrong choice when they decided not to trade Puig two years ago. In dealing with prospects, you’re essentially trying to predict the future, not always easy.

    I’ve heard some analysts say the Dodgers should trade Joc Pederson now, when he’s still worth something. They think he’s another Puig. Without necessarily endorsing that view, I can imagine that Pederson will never get beyond a .240, 20-something home run hitter who plays good defense and strikes out a lot, a guy you can slot sixth or seventh in the batting order, but not in a place where he’d have to protect Seager. I doubt the Dodgers are going to trade him, however.

    Good discussion.

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  21. Blue58

    ElysianPark The Dodgers and Twins could both be trying to wait out the other on this one. The Twins are not likely to get a better prospect in return for Dozier than DeLeon. There just aren’t that many teams that need a second baseman. Also, waiting for the trade deadline runs the risk that Dozier gets injured or has a terrible first half and is worth less. The Dodgers might be waiting for the Twins to recognize this. I agree with you that the Giants are a poor fit. Can’t see them offering anyone approaching the value of DeLeon.

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  22. yarritsblake

    Blue58 yarritsblake Blue, the way the deal is structured right now, between McCarthy and Puig, we have $17.5 million in salary going to the Brewers, and $19 million coming back with Braun.  Next season we lose Crawford ($21 million), Guerrero ($5 million), and buyout Ethier’s option for $2.5 million (netting a net $15 million savings).  Between the trade, and contracts coming off the books, that is net -$39.5 million.  If we can trade some of Kazmir, that is up to another $8 million gone.  We should be fine in terms of money.

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  23. Blue58

    yarritsblake Blue58 Right, your numbers work if McCarthy is included in the deal. But I think that’s highly unlikely right now. McCarthy had three good starts after returning from surgery, and that’s when he was supposedly included in the Braun trade talks. 

    But after that, McCarthy was a total disaster. His last appearance against the Giants: 6 earned runs, no outs. The Brewers would be nuts to take him now at his salary. Now if the Brewers would take Kazmir, Puig and prospects for Braun, that works. But Kazmir also is coming off an injury, so the Brewers probably are reluctant there, too.

    There’s probably a reason that there have been no rumblings of renewed talks about Braun this winter. I think the Brewers have backed off, or maybe they weren’t that interested in the first place. We don’t really know.

    But, if Kazmir and/or McCarthy have a strong spring, this deal can be revisited in March. I would like to see Braun hitting between Seager and Gonzalez for the next couple years.

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  24. yarritsblake

    Blue58 AlwaysCompete Fair enough.  I understand the Dodgers hesitation to add a contract like Braun’s, but, as we agree, they need another impact RHB in addition to Turner in their lineup.  Most of their projectable impact RHB players in their system are at the Single-A and Rookie league levels in our system.  The player that is probably the closest is Yusniel Diaz, but he’s more of a speed and defense, .260-.270 AVG type hitter than an actual impact bat.  The RHB that intrigues me most in our system is DJ Peters.  Many have compared him to a young Jayson Werth.  Similar build, similar hit and power tools, plays solid OF defense with a good arm, and enough speed to steal a few and not be a liability on the paths.  I will be really interested to see how he handles an assignment at low or high-A and if he can make it to AA.  If he makes it to AA and still manages a wRC+ north of 110 or 120 then we could be seeing him on lots of top 10 lists for the Dodgers next year.

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  25. AlwaysCompete

    Blue58 AlwaysCompete  I caught that after I posted my response.  My bad.

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  26. Arodc03

    Your right making a trade at deadline doesn’t mean that the cost of prospects is any less, but there could be more options on the trade market come August then there are now. Options that just maybe worth trading top prospects for. Furthermore teams become more motivated to trade guys like Forsythe particularly when teams come to terms with a losing season or rebuilding time.

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  27. Skythomsen

    Not sure why the FO won’t consider extending Ian Kinsler’s contract. Picking up his option and adding another year at $10M would probably get it done. The extra year would be similar to Utley’s 1yr contract at 36 years of age. Kinsler is clearly among the best defensive 2B in MLB and long time leadoff hitter.  He hits LH pitching as well as Dozier and Braun, albeit with a little less power but he’s a leadoff hitter.  He fits 3 distinct needs, and allows Calhoun, or someone else, 3 years to develop as a 2B replacement. Detroit’s asking price is still somewhat high, but Bellinger is blocked at 1B for 2 more years anyway, and other prospects (or surplus OFs) could easily be developed into a 1B replacement in 2 yrs. Then the Dodgers can use De Leon, Stewart, Stipling as bait at the trade deadline.

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  28. BCRobitaille

    Skythomsen I heard that it would take more than a one year extension. Think he wants up to 3 more years which would be a considerable commitment. He if was only one year, i completely agree. Much rather have Kinsler.

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  29. Arodc03

    I think what’s really holding up the FO from trading for Kinsler is that the asking price is too high. I agree extending Kinsler contract is probably not that big of deal. It’s the amount of prospects that the Dodgers would give up that’s in question.

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  30. Blue58

    Skythomsen We don’t know if Kinsler will settle for one more year at $10 million. He’s said he wants to stay in Detroit and may be asking for something outrageous to move. 

    Besides, that trade would require two negotiations by the Dodgers: one with the Tigers and then another with Kinsler. That doubles the chance for a mistake. I think he’s off the table. Dozier or McCutcheon are better options. Braun is out there, but if he falls off the wagon and goes back on PEDs, his career is over and the Dodgers are screwed.

    I suspect the Dodgers are playing a waiting game with the Twins. It’s unlikely the Twins will get a better offer than DeLeon and whoever the Dodgers are wiling to include, but they may just pass and keep Dozier until the July deadline, then try again.

    Friedman and Co. have a reputation for overvaluing their prospects and refusing to trade anyone with real potential. I agree that they should keep Bellinger, a power hitting, good fielding first baseman who should be ready exactly when Gonzalez’s contract ends, and Alvarez, who throws 100 mph, something that can’t be taught. I don’t presume to be able to evaluate their whole system, however.

    There is a good chance, I believe, that the Dodgers will begin the 2017 season with the same team that lost to the Cubs in the NLDS with the hope that fewer injuries will result in a better record. My own belief is the such a team would be good enough to win the division but not good enough to get to or win a World Series. In other words, they would be stuck the same place they’ve been since before Friedman and his high price minions took over.

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  31. BCRobitaille

    Blue58 Skythomsen I agree the FO tends to be “prospect hoarders” but I they did overpay (at least imo) for HIll and Reddick by giving up Holmes, Cotton, and Montas. And I think a Dozier package centered around De Leon plus others is also overpay.  So who knows.

    True, it’s a good chance that the Dodgers end up with a similar team from last year which wasn’t quite good enough. But as you mentioned, perhaps less injuries will help, as well the development and improvement of some of the young guys.  A full year of Julio, ect. Also you don’t have to be the best team “on paper” to win it all. The Cubs did it last year, but many times it’s not the best team that ends up winning. Just look at the year the Giants won… certainly weren’t the best team, just got hot at the right time.

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  32. BCRobitaille

    Blue58 I disagree about Micah Johnson. What constitutes a “flame out?” One off year in the minors?

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  33. Skythomsen

    Arodc03 From what I understand, Detroit’s asking price is primarily Bellinger and maybe 2 other low level prospects. The FO is apparently reluctant to give up their #1 prospect AND have to give Kinsler an extension to a 34 yo. Although I agree Bellinger may be a unique prospect just a notch below Seager, 1B is where in the era of cybermetrics, one would want the flexibility to play matchups, especially given the Dodgers surplus of outfielders. IMO, it just seems like a no brainer to acquire an elite defender at 2B and a leadoff hitter than a power hitting 2B like Dozier who’s an average or below-average defender and may take some time for power to translate to a new league.  Again IMO, Dodgers don’t need more home runs (more strikeouts), just consistently great defense up the middle and timely, clutch hitting.  

    The infield of Turner, Seager, Kinsler, Gonzalez and Grandal will be among the most consistent and talented in MLB for at least 2-3 years. That gives the FO to figure out or trade for more talent in the outfield and see if Urias, JDL or any of the remaining top prospects can slot in behind Kershaw as top #2 and #3 pitchers. Or trade for another Ace when all the dead salaries off the books in 2 years.

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  34. Skythomsen

    BCRobitaille Most likely, what the extension will be is picking up his option year for $10M (rather than Detroit’s $5M buyout) for 2018, then adding the one year at another $10M for 2019 with a new team (or incentive-based) option for 2020. Dodgers will then be on the hook for 4 yrs/$41M with a team (incentive-based) option for the 4th year.  That’s right in line for what the market would be for an elite 34 year old 2B.

    As far as as Detroit is concerned, they want Bellinger at 1B, so they can shop Miguel Cabrera and get under the more punitive luxury tax in the new CBA.

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  35. Skythomsen

    Blue58 I don’t think the FO as driven as they are by analytics, will start the season with such a glaring weakness against LH pitching.  Unexpected re-signing of Hill, Turner and Jansen reveals IMO the competitive nature of Friedman and Co. that they truly want to keep up with Epstein. Even without Fowler and Chapman, the Cubs will be another year more confident/experienced and will be favorites along with Red Sox and Indians to win the WS.  Friedman and Walters don’t want to be left out of that conversation, especially when Walters saw his hometown Cubs celebrate as they did.  Again, IMO Kinsler fills Dodger need the best, not a power hitting RH with average defensive contributions, e.g., Dozier or Braun.

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  36. Blue58

    BCRobitaille Blue58 The FO seems to have counted out Johnson. They list Hernandez and Taylor as prospective second basemen, with Utley as a possibility. That doesn’t sound like a vote of confidence in Johnson. But maybe he bounces back and impresses with a great spring.

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  37. Blue58

    Skythomsen Arodc03 From what we’ve seen, it would appear to be way out of character for this FO to trade their top hitting prospect for a 34 year old veteran and then give him an extension. Kinsler is attractive, as you point out, but I don’t see him fitting into the Friedman scheme of things.

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  38. Blue58

    BCRobitaille Blue58 Skythomsen I tend to agree the Dodgers gave up too much for two rentals in Hill and Reddick, especially considering Reddick did nothing to fill their biggest need–offense against lefties. Maybe they think so, too, which is why they are reluctant to part with prospects like Bellinger, Buehler and Alvarez.

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  39. yarritsblake

    Skythomsen BCRobitaille That isn’t how extensions usually work especially when a player’s current contract is at below market value for a player of their caliber.  Translated, for the type of value Kinsler brings, his contract is pretty inexpensive.  He knows this, Detroit knows this, LA knows this.  Kinsler, knowing this, probably had the Dodgers on his no-trade list not because he didn’t want to play for us, but so that in the event that Detroit decided the Dodgers were an ideal trade partner Kinsler could leverage that no-trade into a contract extension.  Look, if Turner can nab $16 million AAV, Kinsler will surely nab upwards of $14-16 million AAV on whatever extension he is looking for, which, by the way, will definitely not be for one year, and will most likely be two, or even three years.  At that cost, no thanks.

    Also, if Bellinger is being discussed in that trade, no way.  Bellinger is absolutely untouchable at this point.  He is the only legitimate replacement in our system for Gonzo.

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  40. Skythomsen

    yarritsblake What you’re neglecting is Kinsler’s age. Currently, in his 2018 option year, he will be 36, almost 37, the same age as when Utley signed his one year contract with the Dodgers.  Utley was signed for $7M.  Extending Kinsler for 2 yrs, $10M AAV (one guaranteed and one  option) will bring him to age 39.  There is no way any team is going to extend him beyond 2 years. He’s the best available choice for 2B, and it’s a move Friedman has always advocated, superior defense, veteran leader and clutch hitting who also happens to kill both LH and RH pitching.

    I would agree Bellinger is untouchable if he played a more valued position like pitcher, catcher, SS or 2B or 30+ HR power. But to fill 3 major questions with one player trade… I would do that in a heartbeat.  Don’t forget, the window is closing on Kershaw’s opt out, and Jansen I understand is also negotiating an opt out, presumable to coincide with Kershaw’s.

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  41. yarritsblake

    Interesting factoid.  I was looking for comps for 2B like Brian Dozier in the type of production they have produced in their first four full seasons:
    Player A – .248/.326/.456, .339 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 111 HR, .225 ISO, 9.6 K%, 19.6 BB%
    Player B – .257/.344/.482, .356 wOBA, 113 wRC+, 121 HR, .208 ISO, 10.6 K%, 22.6 BB%
    Guess who is Player A: Brian Dozier.  And Player B: Dan Uggla in his first four seasons.  Just saying…

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