Million-dollar question this offseason has been what it might take for the Los Angeles Dodgers to somehow snag Jose Fernandez from the Miami Marlins. Almost all national voices have the Dodgers as the team most capable of acquiring him, but at what cost?

ESPN’s Jim Bowden tried to figure that out, plus what other teams might have offers to rival Andrew Friedman’s.


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You ready for this? Take a deep breath; maybe sit down, too.

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I guess the good news is the Dodgers would hold on to Corey Seager, but beyond that, this seems like an extremely steep price to pay. Here’s Bowden’s thinking:

The Dodgers should hold on to Corey Seager and not include him in this deal, but to do that, they have no choice but to include two of their top pitching prospects in Urias and De Leon along with center fielder Pederson and Van Slyke, an extra player. The Dodgers would have to get Ozuna back in the deal, in that Ozuna would replace Pederson in center field.

 

When the Dodgers acquired Trayce Thompson in the trade earlier this offseason, Pederson didn’t become immediately dispensable, but his value to the team took a hit. Thompson and Pederson play the same position, and with Carl Crawford being basically immovable and the front office seeming so reluctant to part with Ethier, something has to give. Unfortunately in Bowden’s hypothetical, it’s Pederson.

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The other thing that jumps out is the inclusion of both Julio Urias and Jose De Leon. Given how often fans have heard those two names over the last couple years (and especially the last month or so), I’m not sure a trade featuring both of them would be all that popular, even if it means landing a pitcher of Fernandez’s talent level.

It isn’t like Fernandez comes without risk either. He’s battled injuries more than he’s been healthy the last couple seasons and if the Dodgers offered such a packaged as listed above and he gets hurt yet again, the trade has the potential to look ridiculous for literally the foreseeable future.

Which brings us to why this deal has taken so long and — in my opinion — won’t happen. Friedman and the rest of the front office has prioritized making the franchise sustainable. This means getting the payroll under control and keeping a cycle of young talent to replenish the major league roster whenever possible.

While a Fernandez – Clayton Kershaw combo would obviously shift the balance in the division back to the Dodgers immediately, he doesn’t answer all the other questions left on the field.

I’ll say it like this: The Dodgers don’t seem interested in trading Yasiel Puig, right? That’s because his value has never been (or may never again be) as low as it is right now. Fernandez is the opposite. His value will never be as high as it is right now, and will likely fall as he nears free agency, let alone if he suffers another injury. Ask anyone who’s traded stocks, you never buy at a stock’s highest rate; just as you never sell when it’s at its lowest.

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7 Responses

  1. Blue58

    There’s a reason Jim Bowden is no longer a general manager and instead is pontificating on EPSN: he made dumb trades like this one.

    I’m willing to include Urias or DeLeon in a package for Fernandez, but not both. The second pitcher has to be a lower ceiling player, like Cotton. Also, Pederson for Ozuna is fine with me. We don’t really know if Pederson can hit big league pitching after his second half disaster last season and Thompson gives the Dodgers depth. Fernandez and Ozuna are good young players who can help the team now and stick around for several years. Nonetheless, I don’t see the Dodgers trading away any of these minor leaguers. Friedman hordes his prospects like they’re all Babe Ruth or Sandy Koufax.

    Reply
  2. BuffetBuffetmr

    to stupid to even comment on, some of these people need to get hobbies during the off season to keep from sounding like total morons, jim should take up gardening…

    Reply
  3. davesd80

    BuffetBuffetmr You mean “too stupid”. Actually it makes perfect sense you don’t sell low and buy high in stocks, why do it with athletes? How often does signing a player to a long multi-million contract coming off of a career work out? Basically never. That’s what we’d be doing with Fernandez. Also we’d be selling low on Joc and Puig. Stupid move.

    Reply
  4. WINDII

    make the trade…..prospects are not guaranteed they will live up to their
    promise…..in most cases they don’t……and if these do, LA can always
    go after them later

    Reply
  5. Jagman63

    Not going to happen. Friedman and Co. cannot even sign a decent free agent, let alone swing a major trade. The only way they can make a trade is with multiple teams involved and the Dodger always get screwed when he makes these kind of trades. Get used to it. We are a 3rd place team till 2017 or 2018. And keep buying those tickets!!!!!! (suckers)

    Reply

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