Biggest Dodger Surprise: The Case for Clayton Kershaw
When Clayton Kershaw inked a deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers in November of 2018, he spoke about the belief that he could regain some of his lost velocity.
I’m not counting that out. It very well could. I have some ideas on maybe what I can do to improve on that, because there’s a lot of guys who are older than me, there’s a lot of guys with more innings in the big leagues, that are still maintaining their velocity. There’s some things for me definitely to look into that; there’s some things for me to work on in the offseason. -Clayton Kershaw
Many felt if he could just regain some of his lost velocity, he could return to the elite level he was pitching at prior to his 2018 season. While Kershaw approached the offseason with that goal, it seems age has further regressed his velocity in 2019. The surprise with him this season though, is that despite the additional velocity dip, Kershaw has still pitched quite well.
So Clayton Kershaw’s fastball velocity has gone down about 5 mph over last four years. Meh, still effective. #Dodgers
— JD (@JasonD79) June 30, 2019
Good, not “Vintage”, Kershaw
Though 15 games started Kershaw has made 12 of them quality starts and holds a 7-2 record. He is currently 4th best in the National League in BB/9 (1.455), 5th best in WHIP (1.051) and K/BB (5.688), and 7th best in ERA (3.09). He is not by any means “vintage Kershaw”, but he has definitely been effective.
Breaking down Clayton Kershaw's distribution of pitch speeds by pitch type since 2008. Interesting to see his velocity trend down the last few years. pic.twitter.com/rv67xwsC0U
— Daren Willman (@darenw) May 8, 2019
Last season his average fastball velocity dipped from 93.1 mph the previous season to 91.4 mph. Despite the hope that he’d regain that velocity, it has so far dipped further to 90.5 mph. Beyond his tenacity, the reason he’s been successful to this point has been his execution.
Execution is Key
According to Baseball Reference, he owns a .302 batting average against (BAA) in “high leverage” situations, not very good. Fortunately, he’s only had 55 plate appearances that qualify for that designation. For the most part he doesn’t fall beyond “medium leverage” situations where he holds opponents to a .197 BAA.
Clayton Kershaw, 72mph Cooperstown Curveball (and sword). ? pic.twitter.com/Q5KWyoambs
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 10, 2019
His “Clutch Stats” in 2019 are pretty impressive as well. When Kershaw has been behind in the score, his opponents are slashing just .171/.211/.265 against him. Additionally, when his back is really against the wall, 2 outs RISP, he has just a .179 BAA.
Final Thoughts
Clayton Kershaw has surprised us by not gaining his velocity back, in fact, he’s surprised us and lost more of it. Regardless, the 2019 All- Star remains top 10 in the NL in WHIP, BB/9, K/BB, and ERA.
Clayton Kershaw has to grind through this start. He discusses how good this #Dodgers team is and what he needs to do before his next start against the #Phillies pic.twitter.com/mrFeCm0y9y
— Michael J. Duarte (@michaeljduarte) May 28, 2019
His success continues because of what his manager and teammates say about him, “He grinds” and “He wills his way to a win”. Really though, it boils down to his ability to execute when he needs to the most. The slider may not be working on a particular day, but he can somehow make it work when he needs to get out of jam. Kershaw continues to be good because he wills it so.
