Dodgers Expected To Break International Spending Records
The Plan
Now that we’ve looked at what the Dodgers are doing, we can ask if they should be doing it. The penalties for going over the international bonus pool are pretty severe. As the club is only allotted just over $2 million for the 2015-2016 period, they’ll be forced to pay an overage tax of 100 percent on all signing beyond that amount.
This means Alvarez’s $16 million price tag is actually $32 million (or $30 million if you want to subtract the pool amount from his bonus). McDaniel projects the Dodgers to spend more than $37 million on the six players mentioned above, with the note that the club figures to go hard after Cuban defectors that have yet to be declared free agents.
Is it smart to spend this type of money on players who’ve never pitched an inning or had an at bat in pro ball? History is full of all sorts of successes and failures.
Go back to 2012, which may be the Dodgers’ banner year for international imports. In June of that year, shortly before MLB imposed its new international free agency restrictions, the club inked Yasiel Puig to a seven-year, $42 million deal.
On that same scouting trip, the Dodgers got a look at a Mexican lefty who they later signed after he turned 16. That southpaw of course is Julio Urias. In the winter, the team won a bid on a Korean lefty who they signed for six years at $36 million. That’s Hyun-jin Ryu.
So, in the span of six months, the team had signed a future All-Star outfielder, a pitcher who ranked 18th in Majors in fWAR over his first two years in the league, and one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
Going back even further, you see names such as Adrian Beltre, Pedro Martinez and even Roberto Clemente. However, there have been plenty of misses as well. In consecutive years, the Dodgers broke the record for highest bonus for a Dominican prospect, in 2000 with Willy Aybar and 2001 with Joel Guzman.
Aybar is best known as Erick’s brother, while Guzman was a pipe-dream 6’6 shortstop with light-tower power but no plate discipline. More recently, the club signed Erisbel Arruebarrena to a five-year deal worth $25 million, and while he excels on defense, his offense and work-habits are serious question marks.
That brings us to the most important part of this strategy — the Dodgers will essentially be shut out of the international signing period for two years. Along with the overage tax, the team will be limited to spending just $300,000 per player over the next two cycles.
That means the Dodgers would be barred from opening up the wallet for the next Puig or Ryu or Urias from July 2, 2016 to July 2, 2018. However, with so little money to play with year to year, it makes sense to splurge during a single period in order to maximize returns rather than stay within the limits and miss out on top talent.
The Result
Obviously, we won’t know how this plan works out for another several years, considering the oldest player the Dodgers are projected to sign is just 20 years old. However, given the information we have right now, it’s hard to argue against hoarding elite international talent, regardless of the consequences.
The organization has been rebuilding its farm since Frank McCourt left and have made strides, both domestically and abroad. This signing period could accelerate that process dramatically and give the Dodgers even more elite prospects to develop or deal.
Players like Alvarez, Fox and Martinez figure to rank among the Minor League’s Top 100 prospects after they sign. With the Dodgers already boasting two of the top prospects in the game in Corey Seager and Julio Urias, the thought of adding three more to that list brings the term “embarrassment of riches” to mind.
Sure, not all of them will pan out, but that’s why you want as many as you can get. In the end, this gives the team the best chance to continue to supply the big club with cheap, young talent, as well as potential trade chips. When you have more money than everyone else, you might as well spend it.
What’s your take? Should the club go big on July 2 or save that money for something else? Let me know on Twitter @JaredJMassey and reply in our comments section below!
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It’s fun knowing your team is going to be competitive for years to come. But I’ll be honest, unless we win a title at some point in the next 5 years, how disappointing will all of this be?