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Dodgers: Fangraphs Lists the Padres Rotation Over LA

Padres fans did a bit of gloating on Wednesday.

GLENDALE, AZ - MARCH 06: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Los Angeles Dodgers jokes with Jurickson Profar #10 of the San Diego Padres during the game at Camelback Ranch on March 6, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images)


The Dodgers and Padres are going to be the headlines of the NL West in 2021. With all due respect to the Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Giants, this is really a two-horse race. 

The Padres stayed pretty close to the Dodgers for a decent chunk of the shortened season in 2020. Ultimately, they fell short and ran out of steam at the end of the year, and could not keep pace. That resulted in a series sweep when the two teams met up in the National League Division Series. 

But the Padres went out this offseason and made every big splash that they possibly could. San Diego traded for Blake Snell and Yu Darvish within a few days to make their rotation MUCH better. The Dodgers countered that by adding Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer into the fold. 

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The Dodgers come into the 2021 season with at least 8 guys looking to crack their rotation. Despite that, the analytics predict the Padres to have a better starting rotation. Fangraphs came out with their preseason predictions, and San Diego came in ahead of Los Angeles. 

You sort of have to take these predictions with a grain of salt given the consistent uncertainty around pitchers. But looking back at the total fWAR from last year of those predicted to be in each team’s rotation, the Padres would have the edge. The Dodgers rotated so many guys into the rotation that there wasn’t one guy that had the chance to build up his numbers. 

So while the Padres appear to have the better-predicted numbers, they certainly don’t have the depth. The Dodgers come in with 8 starting pitchers while San Diego will be lucky to have 5. 

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Written by Brook Smith

Brook is the Senior Editor of Dodgers Nation, with several years of experience in sports journalism. He is an avid Dodgers and Lakers fan, and can be spotted fairly often at Dodger Stadium and Staples Center.

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  1. Resources wins battles and wars. LA has a plethora of resources whereas the Padres will stall where ever their front line gets wounded or worst.

  2. Dodger staff ranking blah blah blah. Same thing was kicked around last year after they missed out on Cole and Ryu wasn’t signed. Pundits were saying the staff was too inexperienced and all they did was lead the majors in ERA, ERA+, and WHIP.

    The only problem with this staff is they can’t start them all. Heck, even Jimmy Nelson looks like he could start for almost any other team.

  3. Here’s a question for you dodger fans Dave Roberts comes in after Don Mattingly John manly hands in the keys to the Ferrari how many World Series did we lose analytics between him and Andrew Freeman? Now I’m listening to the shit hole company called fan graphs i used to have some respect for Then when they first started but now everything about analytics and we’re talking three Cy Young award winners past and present and you’re gonna tell me the Padres are better with you Huy Darvish the Dodgers got rid of him so he had a good year last year so did Trevor Bauer Bauer The differences is Mr. Bauer comes away with the Cy Young Snell didn’t nor Darvish so analytics once again take it in the ass I like who the Dodgers have as their closers little relievers and just pure eat guys are trying to make the rotation once again analytics is a waste of time it’s good as a search tool that’s about it baseball major-league baseball needs to get it out of his head that it’s something special we all play with stats always have your going too far when you run things by analytics talk to Dave Roberts he lost of the Houston Astros that way that he loses to the Boston Red Sox that way oh but that’s right we also had some cheating that we can’t talk about oh wonder why we can’t talk about that why do the Dodgers always have class. The bottom line is after how many other games are playing next year I think 154 games we’ll see who’s better but we will I guarantee you and Manny Machado can take it in the ass along Snell,Darvish ,Richards and Tatis Jr. I just want him to be set down because they don’t play like professionals they play like angry young kids and I think that will be the demise of them again this year you can have a lot of passion the talking shits not a good thing that’s what they tend to do all these people that they added never played together as a nucleus the only one that worries me is Snell he’s a great picture. The boy can put it where he wants to put it great pitcher.

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