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Dodgers: Gavin Lux, Josiah Gray, Kody Hoese & More Find New Homes on Updated Prospects List

We compare FanGraphs mid-season list from May to now.



Seven months ago we did some analysis of the FanGraphs Top 47 updated prospect list at our sister site Dodgers 2080. Now the stats site has dropped its latest Top 47 updated for the offseason. Notably, we see a lot of changes despite not having a minor league season in 2020.

FanGraphs usually strays away from some of the consensus picks and this new list definitely has some surprises. Lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen spends plenty of time at the Dodgers Spring Training complex in Arizona with his video equipment and has a great scouting eye.

Some New Terms

Importantly, right off the bat, there is some new terminology to get familiar with.

Some of the classifications given to some of the pitchers I don’t agree with and we’ll break some of those down later.

Note: Pages, an outfield prospect, was included in the Joc Pederson/Ross Stripling trade to the Angels that never materialized in February.

The List Comparison

Here is the comparison of the FanGraphs Top 47 lists from May 2020 to December 2020.

Change May 2020 Pos Rank Dec 2020 Pos Change
Grad Gavin Lux 2B 1 Gray SP +2
Grad Dustin May RHP 2 Ruiz C +3
  Josiah Gray RHP 3 Busch 2B +7
Grad Tony Gonsolin RHP 4 Pages CF +4
  Keibert Ruiz C 5 Amaya SS +7
Grad Brusdar Graterol RHP 6 Pepiot MIRP +10
  Diego Cartaya C 7 Clayton Beeter SIRP 2020 draft
  Andy Pages CF 8 Bobby Miller SP 2020 draft
  Kody Hoese 3B 9 Hoese 3B Same
  Michael Busch 2B 10 Cartaya C -3
  Miguel Vargas 3B 11 De Jesus 3B +3
  Jacob Amaya SS 12 Vargas 1B -1
  Gerardo Carrillo RHP 13 Jackson SP +2
  Alex De Jesus 3B 14 McKinstry 2B +14
  Andre Jackson RHP 15 Grove MIRP +4
  Ryan Pepiot RHP 16 Carrillo SIRP -3
  Luis Rodriguez CF 17 Rodriguez CF Same
  Robinson Ortiz LHP 18 Ortiz MIRP Same
  Michael Grove RHP 19 Gonzalez SIRP +8
  DJ Peters CF 20 Nick Robertson SIRP New
  Jimmy Lewis RHP 21 Vivas 2B +10
  Edwin Uceta RHP 22 Kendall Williams SP Stripling trade
  Omar Estevez 2B 23 Landon Knack SIRP 2020 draft
  Josh Sborz RHP 24 J. Lewis SP -3
  Cody Thomas RF 25 Jake Vogel CF 2020 draft
Grad Dennis Santana RHP 26 Rosario SP +8
  Victor Gonzalez LHP 27 Duran SIRP +5
  Zach McKinstry 2B 28 Outman CF +18
Grad Edwin Rios 1B 29 Reks DH +13
  Mitchell White RHP 30 B. Lewis 1B +7
  Jorbit Vivas 2B 31 Uceta SP -9
  Carlos Duran RHP 32 C. Santana 3B +1
  Cristian Santana 3B 33 Estevez 2B -10
  Jerming Rosario RHP 34 Carson Taylor C 2020 draft
Rule 5 Brett de Geus RHP 35 Jose Ramos CF New
Rule 5 Jordan Sheffield RHP 36 Octavio Becerra SP New
  Brandon Lewis 3B 37 Sborz SIRP -13
Dropped Marshall Kasowski RHP 38 Thomas RF -13
  Devin Mann 2B 39 White SIRP -9
  Jeren Kendall CF 40 Mann 2B -1
  Jose Martinez RHP 41 Morillo SIRP +3
  Zach Reks DH 42 Osvanni Gutierrez SP New
  Luke Raley 1B 43 Choi MIRP +3
  Juan Morillo RHP 44 Kendall CF -4
  Hyun-il Choi RHP 45 Martinez SIRP -4
  James Outman CF 46 Peters CF -26
  Guillermo Zuniga RHP 47 Zuniga SIRP Same

Notable Risers

  • Michael Busch – Busch’s power is legitimate and he is turning a lot of heads. The main question will be whether he can stay at second base.
  • Jacob Amaya – Amaya is an excellent shortstop and the bat is coming around. I’ve watched him up close and I really like the presence he brings to the field and the dugout.
  • Ryan Pepiot – I had a great interview with Pepiot a few months ago. He is starting to draw some extra raves. His single appearance in Spring Training 2.0 was a glimpse of what we could be. His changeup is elite. FanGraphs has him down as a multi-inning relief pitcher but I still see him as a starter.
  • Zach McKinstry – McKinstry is in line for a Major League roster spot as a utility player. The 2016 33rd round pick impressed the Dodgers a lot in 2020.
  • Jorbit Vivas – Vivas is only 19 years old and played rookie ball in Ogden in 2019. He is a contact hitter who might hit for more power as he matures.
  • James Outman – Outman is one of the best athletes in the Dodgers farm system. I interviewed him two years ago after his first professional season.

Notable Drops

  • Edwin Uceta – 2020 was a tough year for Uceta. He was sent home during the season for reportedly breaking COVID-19 protocols. He was recently added to LA’s 40-man roster and is pitching well in the Winter Leagues in the Dominican Republic. I believe he will have an excellent 2021. 
  • Omar Estevez – Estevez was left open for the Rule 5 Draft and was not selected. His 2019 season was off to an excellent start when he got hurt. Improvement on defense will determine how far he goes.
  • Josh Sborz – Sborz has spent some time in the Major Leagues with very few opportunities. With so many bullpen free agents, 2021 could be a great opportunity for Sborz.
  • Cody Thomas – Thomas was also not selected in the Rule 5 Draft. I interviewed him in 2018. He is another excellent athlete who is still coming around at the plate. He was so good in 2020 Spring Training and was primed for an excellent season in AAA.
  • DJ Peters – The fall of Peters to near the bottom of the list was shocking. Another strong athlete but there are fears his swing is too big. With so many free agents for the Dodgers, it is possible we could see Peters make his Major League debut in 2021.
  • Marshall Kasowski – Kasowski was dropped completely from the Top 47 which was shocking. He also was not selected in the Rule 5 Draft but he is close to making his debut. However, he might miss half of 2021 with an injury.

Notable Additions

The draft brought most of the new additions but so did the Ross Stripling trade. Here are some others.

  • Nick Robertson – Robertson was a 7th round pick in the 2019 draft and the Dodgers have him as a reliever. That draft brought a lot of relievers to the system. Go check Dodgers 2080 for some coverage of some of those under-the-radar pitchers. Robertson was tagged by FanGraphs as one who could move up quickly with his fastball/curveball pitch mix.
  • Jose Ramos – Ramos is from Panama and is rated as an outstanding defensive center fielder. The arm is elite. If the hitting continues to improve we will hear a lot more about Ramos.
  • Octavio Becerra – our friend Josh Thomas did some digging on Becerra.

  • Osvanni Gutierrez – A late 2018 signing out of Cuba Guitierrez has a nice changeup and can locate pretty well.

Final Thoughts

First and foremost:

The work that FanGraphs does is invaluable to the hardcore baseball fan so please consider supporting them. I know that I do.

We see that there were a lot of players that graduated from prospect status, including four of the top six from May. Now we see some new blood and some new rapid risers. It’s time to get excited about the new prospects but we may not see some of them at the Major League level for quite a few years.

There are plenty of players on the FanGraphs Top 47 that are not very well known. On Dodgers 2080 we will continue to feature prospects that deserve some of the spotlight. Please join us as we learn more about these Dodgers of the future.

NEXT: 2021 Season Start in Jeopardy Amid Virus and Financial Concerns

Written by Tim Rogers

A fan of the Dodgers since 1973 since I got my first baseball cards while living in Long Beach. I came to San Diego for college and never left nor did I ever switch my Dodgers' allegiance. Some know me as the "sweater guy". #ProspectHugger

Comments

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  1. Tim appreciate all the information you give us on the Dodger Farm system. Thanks.
    How close is Busch? Could he come up in 2021 or do you think he is clearly 2022? What about Amaya? 2022?
    I would think that these quality infielders have to impact the Dodger decisions on upcoming contracts.

  2. I never understood the Pederson/Stripling/Pages aborted trade with the Angels. Moreno foolishly violated a Napoleonic axiom of “never interrupt your enemy when he making a mistake.” Friedman dodged a bullet.

  3. WHOA! A player in 2019 is 5’9″ 165 and 14 months later is 6’3″ 209?!!

    Sounds like a case of “trading places”…

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