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Dodgers, Kershaw And Seager Project Well Early



Over the last several years, baseball has gone through a cataclysmic shift in how the game is viewed. While traditional numbers – batting average, home runs, runs batted in – have been celebrated throughout the history of the game, it’s the new advanced numbers that are making their impact felt.

One of those numbers is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). It’s, essentially, an all-encompassing statistic that attempts to compile all of a player’s (or team’s) contributions into a single number. The higher the number, the better the player (or team). Well, the early numbers are out for the Dodgers.


ICYMI: Dodgers’ Signing Kenta Maeda Makes Sense Now, And in Future


This is just an early look at the Wins Above Replacement projection, via Carson Cistulli (@cistulli), for the Dodgers:

The numbers themselves are courtesy of Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski), the creator of ZiPS (SZymborski Projection System).

If you go off the numbers listed above, Clayton Kershaw is headed towards his second straight 8+ WAR season and fourth straight 7+ WAR season. Kershaw’s projection is so absurd that Szymborski had this to say:

Among the other interesting things to note is that Yasiel Puig, the combination of Andre Ethier and Scott Van Slyke, and the combination of Yasmani Grandal and A.J. Ellis each are projected for 4+ WAR. Free agent acquisitions Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda are each projected for roughly 3+ WAR.

The most shocking thing, though? Corey Seager.

If Szymborski’s cryptic tweet here is to be taken at face value, then Seager is projected to have a monster season.

Either way, this would put the Dodgers at about 46 Wins Above Replacement just based on the numbers we’ve seen. To put that into perspective, the Kansas City Royals finished with 38.3 WAR on their way to a World Series win in 2015.

Last season, the Dodgers produced 49.1 WAR. Once again, this is just a projection. The real season has to be played, but, for now, it looks like the Dodgers are going to be a very dangerous squad yet again.

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