The current 2022 Dodgers roster is still an unfinished product. Check that, every MLB team’s 2022 roster is an unfinished product due to the MLB lockout. That being said, one projection system still ranks the Dodgers as the best team in baseball.
Even after losing Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Kenley Jansen, and Corey Seager, to name a few.
FanGraphs “ZiPS” projections tool, developed by Dan Szymborski, put the Dodgers above the rest of the field in terms of total projected Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for the upcoming season.
ZiPS Top 5 Teams by Total WAR
- Dodgers 49.4
- Yankees 48.3
- Mets 47.8
- Astros 45.3
- White Sox 45.3
Before you light up the comments, note that this a projection. Not a guarantee of a 2022 Dodgers championship. There’s a many, many projection models out there.
However, ZiPS is known as one of the more accurate projections models in baseball.
To keep it brief, ZiPS is a well-educated, and well-“mathed”, approximation of a given player’s “baseline expectation” spiced with an estimation of the player’s future performance to generate WAR. It is not a tool for predicting playing time.
Full disclosure, ZiPS is derived from a treasure trove of math and modeling that this writer isn’t smart enough to completely comprehend.
The Dodgers roster as it stands is not bulletproof. There are significant questions surrounding the back end of the rotation. Especially since LA did not re-sign Clayton Kershaw prior to the lockout. Moreover, Kershaw’s availability for 2022 is a question inside the question.
Max Muncy’s recovery from his frightening elbow injury is another cause for concern. Muncy is not a shoo-in to be manning first base on Opening Day for the Dodgers.
Baseball is a deeply stat-driven sport, but it’s still not played on paper.
If it was, the Dodgers would already be hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy.