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Dodgers Projected to Lead National League in WAR

The Dodgers have a very talented roster.



With all the projection systems starting to spit out their numbers, the Dodgers appear to be in really good shape heading into 2020. According to New York Mets beat reporter Michael Baron, the Dodgers are currently projected to pace the rest of the National League in wins above replacement (WAR) by a wide margin. This factors in the losses of both Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill to the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins, respectively. It also includes updated contributions of rookies.

Here are the top ten projected teams in wins above replacement for 2020. One major thing to understand is that WAR does not necessarily equate to wins. For example, just because the New York Mets are loved by the projection systems, it does not mean that they will win their division nor make the playoffs. It could happen, but it is not a for sure thing.

The Dodgers figure to be led in WAR by the contributions of Cody Bellinger, Clayton Kershaw, and Walker Buehler with potential upside being delivered upon by top prospects like Gavin Lux, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin.

Despite their unnerving inactivity in the market this winter, the Dodgers are still in a fantastic position to win a World Series and a pennant. Their projected 6.1 WAR lead on the rest of the league could easily turn into a double-digit lead with addition of a player of the ilk of a Francisco Lindor.

Get ready for another big year for the Dodgers.

Written by Daniel Preciado

My name is Daniel Preciado and I am 19 years old. I am a sophomore Sport Analytics major and Cognitive Science and Economics dual minor at Syracuse University. When I am not in New York, I live in Whittier, California --- not too far from Chavez Ravine. I am pretty old-school for being an analytics guy and I will always embrace debate. Also, Chase Utley did absolutely nothing wrong.

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  1. Yes, the Dodgers remain the best team in the NL. So they should make it back to the big dance. Then what? Can Buehler pitch all seven games? We have no realistic playoff rotation, do we?

  2. Buehler, Kersh, May, Maeda and Urias will be ready with Gonsolin and Strip pushing to make the rotation!

  3. A lot of fans do not understand that getting TO the playoffs is the key. And we have had one year where we may have actually won the Series. And if you look back, a lot of times it is the unsuspected player that makes the difference. Bobby Thompson. Bucky Dent. Mickey Hatcher. And the list goes on. Charlie Morton for the Astros against us. Joe Kelly? Did well enough to dominate us and get a contract from us. And the “game of inches”. Will Smith had a slight undercut that cost him a home run. Could have been a difference against Washington. We keep knocking on the door, and we will get there. And we have the players (our own) to do it. Roberts needs a few better decisions as well; but we will get there. We could have used a solid starter; but we still have 7 starters with 3 potentially dominating. We get TO the dance and anything can happen. Ya Never Know.

  4. The usual lap danc to keep the fan base sold on their top 5 Triple A team that has a ” chance” to win the World series. Wayne, question .. ” What makes you think money ball wins championships?”

  5. Oh so now you are saying the Dodgers are not doomed because they didn’t make the bad deals many of the fans and sportswriters wanted them to make?
    If you are so fortunate as to have a team make it to the playoffs from there it is all about injuries, momentum and if a couple of key players get hot. This year Strasburg and Scherzer were incredibly impressive and Rendon after several bad playoffs got hot.
    The Dodgers have the potential to have Buehler, Urias and other pitchers lead them to the playoffs. The potential of this club is amazing and they continue to get younger. The best is yet to come despite many negative fans opinions.
    A Line up barring trade of Muncy, Smith, Lux, Seager, Turner, Bellinger, Verdugo and Pederson and/or Pollock should be more potent than the start of 2019. As Lux, Smith, a full time Verdugo and Pollock with the plate out of his arm should improve. the offense.
    A rotation of Kershaw, Buehler, Maeda, Urias and depending on trades Stripling, May, Gonsolin, Santana, Gonzalez or May who are all on the 40 man roster should be as good or better than last year. I expect the pitchers not in the rotation will compete for the Bullpen slots.

  6. Los Angeles projected to lead the nation in hotdogs sales at over 19 million. I’d like to think Dodger Stadium is a huge park of that.

  7. If you believe this there’s a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you. The Dodgers have lost a Cy Young caliber starting pitcher (Ryu) to free agency and have rookie pitchers to replace him (and Hill). The rookie pitchers will be used up prior to the postseason. Are they better than the team that won 106 games last year? No. Even everyday rookie players like Will Smith who started out with guns blazing tailed off later.

    I don’t want to be a pessimist, but 106 wins was pretty good. I project the Dodgers to win 88 to 93 games this year in the absence of aquiring a proven quality starter to to replace Ryu (and Hill).

    You can play games with individual WAR. I don’t even know how it’s calculated. Does anyone?. Even the magical 100 win season is pretty meaningless. Did the Nationals have 100 regular season wins last year? Do you think they care about that now? Unless the Dodgers aquire a proven starting pitcher, they will be worse than last year. The end.

  8. Dodger106, spot on. I figured 90 wins …. Friedman and his fantasy plan of subtraction = addition has never worked ever, for any sport or business. One thing that’s for sure though, ticket,parking,concessions and merchandise pricing will follow the same model of addition + more addition = gross earning and huge profit!

  9. Dodger106W and Kirk Lyons. Let’s set the under / over at 91; I’m in for the over. How much?

  10. Bum, your absolutely on, I’ll take the under! So I will make it official opening day. This will give you time to rethink your position, and myself to see if the conmen magically adopt a new philosophy of adding anyone of significant value. But as we sit your on. And well let the Dodgers fans here to decide if anyone added is of significance! So just because Friedman says Alex Wood or Homer Bailey or Jed Jeorko are game changers, we’ ll let our bretheran here determine that! How’s that sound?

    • Kirk … I’m good “as is” and you can decide by opening day if the Dodgers have added anyone that would skew the line to change your mind. What’s the wager? Bragging rights?
      For the record, I think it 50 / 50 they make a move before opening day. They have to find someone willing to play fair – neither Cleveland nor Boston is it. Maybe Chicago.

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