in

Dodgers Rotation: The Cost to Replace Zack Greinke

Dodgers
Apr 1, 2018; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Rich Hill (44) delivers a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during a MLB baseball game at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Every time I see Zack Greinke pitch for the Arizona Diamondbacks I still wonder, “what might have been had he stayed with the Dodgers after 2015”?  Would he have been a difference maker in the 2017 World Series?  Greinke was outstanding in his career with the Dodgers and a big question was, how do the Dodgers replace him? As with most things with the Dodgers, cost is a major factor in building a team; maximizing the value of each player.  They spend more than most teams but try to build depth by getting the best value out of their roster, not only the 25 man roster but the 40 man roster.  I am going to look at the value of Zack Greinke with his new contract and the pitchers that were acquired to fill in for Greinke.

The pitchers I am considering as replacements for Greinke are Scott Kazmir, Rich Hill and Yu Darvish.  I am throwing in Brett Anderson because I wonder if they’d have offered him a qualifying offer had they signed Greinke to an extension in the spring of 2015.  I did not include Kenta Maeda as it is my belief the Dodgers were going to sign him anyway.

The below table shows the contract outlays for Greinke and the amount the Dodgers spent on the others (thanks to True Blue LA for the contract details). These details are the cost against the luxury tax which is the average of the contract including bonuses and contract deferments.

’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20

’21

Zack Greinke

$34.4M

$34.4M $34.4M $34.4M $34.4M

$34.4M

Scott Kazmir

$15M

$15M

Rich Hill

$2M

$16M $16M

$16M

Yu Darvish

$3.7M

Brett Anderson $15.8M

 

Here’s a summary of what Greinke did for the Diamondbacks since leaving and what his replacements have done:

Jun 13, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zack Greinke (21) throws during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
  • Zack Greinke – The 2016 season was his worst season since 2011 while missing about 6 starts.  He bounced back strong in 2017 that was more in line with his previous seasons.  However, his 2 post-season appearances were pretty mediocre and not what would even be close to what would be expected from a so-called ace.  His 2018 season has been pretty strong so far.
  • Scott Kazmir – In late December the Dodgers signed Kazmir to a 3 year/$48 million contract as the primary replacement for Greinke.  He even was slotted into the number 2 spot in the rotation.  There was a mixture of results with an assortment of injuries that shut him down near the end of the season.  He didn’t make an appearance in 2017 and was traded to the Braves as part of the Charlie Culberson trade.
  • Rich Hill – He was acquired from the A’s at the trading deadline in 2016 along with Josh Reddick for Frankie Montas, Jharel Cotton, and Grant Holmes.  After recovering from a blister issue he was dominant at the end of 2016.  His playoff appearances were mixed but highlighted by 6 shutout innings in game 3 of the NLCS.  2017 brought more blisters but plenty of good starts.  He became the number 2 starter in the playoff rotation with solid appearances in all his starts.  His 2018 has had more blister issues and had a bad first couple of months. Since coming off the disabled list in mid-June he’s been very good with ERAs of 2.55, 2.42 and 1.50 in June, July and into August.
  • Yu Darvish – He was acquired from the Rangers at the 2017 trade deadline for highly rated prospect Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy and Brendon Davis. His time with the Dodgers was very inconsistent as he started well, went very bad, recovered by the end of the season to be excellent again, until the nightmare World Series.  He signed with the Cubs for the 2018 season.
  • Brett Anderson – After a good 2015 season the Dodgers offered him a qualifying offer (QO) that he accepted.  Supposedly, the Dodgers wanted him to leave and were going to sign Rich Hill if he did.  That would have been ideal.  Hindsight is pretty obvious in this case. In spring training of 2016, his back went out and only made 4 appearances for the Dodgers. The Dodgers gambled with the QO and lost.

The following table shows how much bWAR (Baseball-Reference Wins Above Replacement) each accumulated while under contract with the Diamondbacks or Dodgers:

bWAR as of 8/6/18 ’16 ’17 ’18 Projected ’18 Total WAR
Greinke 2.3 6.1 3.6 5.2 13.6
Kazmir 0.5 .5
Hill 1.4 2.2 0.9 1.3 4.9
Darvish .6 .6
Anderson -0.7 -.7

I then took each value of bWAR and multiplied it by $7 million. This is an assumption I made that each WAR is worth $7 million.  FanGraphs used $8.7 million in 2015 (when Greinke was a free agent) but I went more conservative at $7 million.  In this case, you can see the total bWAR in my dollar/WAR amounts.

’16 ’17 Projected ’18 Total
Greinke $16.1M $42.7M $36.4M $95.2M
Kazmir $3.5M 0 $3.5M
Hill $9.8M $15.4M $9.1M $34.3M
Darvish $4.2M $4.2M
Anderson -4.9M -4.9M

Next, I took the bWAR dollar value and differentiated it with their salary on a per season basis and totaled them to get how much value they were worth based on total bWAR and total salary.  As the table shows, Greinke came in way below but now is back to justifying his salary.  Rich Hill is right on the money with Anderson and Kazmir being a waste of salary.  The post-season factor for Darvish makes it tough to gauge his value.  He was great in the NLDS and the NLCS but was tragically bad in the World Series.  What type of factor would Greinke have been in the 2017 post-season?  He was bad for the Diamondbacks in the playoffs, so, who knows?

Per Million ’16 ’17 Projected ’18 Total
Greinke -18.3 8.3 2.0 -8.0
Kazmir -11.5 -15 -26.5
Hill 7.8 -.6 -6.9 0.3
Darvish .5 .5
Anderson -20.7 -20.7

Lastly I put all the information together and it looks like, in total value, only Darvish’s short time with the Dodgers and Rich Hill has a positive dollar value.  The rest have fallen short even though Greinke is decently close.  As both of them are older it will be interesting to see what kind of age related decline they end up having with Greinke having 3 more years at $34.4M per and Hill having 1 more year at $16M.

bWAR as of 8/6/18 ’16 ’17 Projected ’18 Total WAR Cost Value for WAR Total $ Spent Cost Diff for WAR Value
Greinke 2.3 6.1 5.2 13.6 95.2 103.2 -8.0
Kazmir 0.5 .5 3.5 30 -26.5
Hill 1.4 2.2 1.3 4.9 34.3 34 0.3
Darvish .6 .6 4.2 3.7 .5
Anderson -0.7 -.7 -4.9 15.8 -20.7

If there is really anything that I take away from this, pitching is expensive and the cost doesn’t always match the actual value. It has also cost some well regarded prospects like Calhoun, Cotton, Montas and Holmes to replace Zack Greinke.  Finding cheaper alternatives like 2016 Rich Hill’s contract or younger/cheaper starters like Julio Urias, Ross Stripling, Alex Wood or Walker Buehler can bring much better value.  However, having strong and established starters in the playoffs does sound good.  At the end of the day, getting to the playoffs doesn’t always mean high cost pitchers but do you trust the younger and cheaper starters in those crucial games?

[button color=”red” size=”big” alignment=”center” rel=”follow” openin=”samewindow” url=”http://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-heroes-of-the-second-half-so-far-bs0193/2018/08/06/”]Dodgers: Heroes of the Second Half So Far[/button]

Written by Tim Rogers

A fan of the Dodgers since 1973 since I got my first baseball cards while living in Long Beach. I came to San Diego for college and never left nor did I ever switch my Dodgers' allegiance. Some know me as the "sweater guy". #ProspectHugger

Comments

Leave a Reply
  1. It would have been interesting to have included the minor leaguers that were given up for Hill and Darvish. If they are making an impact, or not, on their respective clubs would have changed the projected value of the trades.

  2. Nice effort, Tim, but we are all wasting our time appealing to Dodger management. Those two young, overpaid “geniuses,” actually morons, cost our team the Series last year by signing Darvish instead of Verlander, and the year before by letting Greinke get away, and this year, I’m afraid, by not getting a reliable reliever or two to get to Jansen. Instead, they get Axford and bring up Rosscup, whose pitching in the second game of the Astros series was sickening to watch, and Alexander, another loser leftie, who gave up 3 walks and 2 hits in a game against the Braves.

    We should ban all left-handed “specialists,” most of whom cannot get one batter out and are taking up space on the roster, which should be given to a real athlete.

    Some lifelong Dodger fans cannot wait much longer for a championship!

    • Just one clarification. If you remember, it was Greinke who bailed on the Dodgers at the last minute, after he had been such a well liked part of the team and offered a Huge contract. He decided he wanted to leave, maybe he wanted to be considered the ace instead of #2 behind Clayton.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Loading…

0

Comments

0 Leave a Comment

Dodgers

Game Preview: Dodgers Take to the Bay Area to Face the Athletics

Game Preview: Dodgers Try For 2-Game Sweep in Oakland