Projections are flying as players are starting to report for Spring Training, and why not? It’s fun to do a deep dive into players’ numbers and trends to see where they are headed for the 2019 season. Derek Carty, a regular on Baseball Tonight and at ESPN, recently gave his own MLB predictions for the year. Carty runs “The Bat”, a sabermetric focused system to project how players will do during the year. Carty has the Dodgers looking like the staff of the year in 2019.
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) February 13, 2019
The projections have the Dodgers with nine guys capable of being formidable aces or at least number two guys on MOST pitching staffs. The projection notes that every pitcher with the exception of Dennis Santana and Caleb Ferguson will get at least ten starts in 2019. They also project that each of these guys will exceed the ERA expectations of quite a few MLB aces. As you can see for the diagram, and of these guys could move to one of the teams listed and instantly have the potential to become their best pitcher.
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The interesting thing is that the PECOTA projections had the Dodgers’ staff looking like they were in for some trouble. Kershaw came in at a very high 3.24 ERA behind 26 starts, and everyone else fared much worse. Here’s to hoping that The BAT projections end up being the more accurate one.
More From The Projections
Carty did have Walker Buehler taking a decent step back from his rookie campaign. While his inning total looks like it will go up, his ERA and FIP are fairly inflated. In fact, his ERA is projected to jump up to 3.19 in 2019. Not terrible by any means, but not near the elite 2.62 ERA he put up last season.
Kershaw is also projected to take another step back in 2019, with an ERA topping three. That would be the first time since his rookie season that his earned run average eclipsed three. He is however projected to start more games and give the team more innings.
Regardless of how Kershaw and Buehler’s numbers may look, it’s exciting to see the potential of this staff. Young guys like Buehler, Urias, Ferguson, and Santana SHOULD get more opportunities this season. The established veterans may be able to contribute more quality starts knowing that these younger guys can cover them should they need the rest. I fully expect to see more off days for Rich Hill and possibly even Kershaw moving forward.
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