The Dodgers Were Right to Pass on Cueto
4. The Dodgers have won the National League West for three straight years for the first time in their long and illustrious history by following a very specific plan to action. Dodgers President Stan Kasten has been preaching for a while that the plan was to buy talent (free agents) in the beginning to bridge the gap between developing talent. Why do we keep forgetting this?
Remember the first move the new Dodgers Guggenheim ownership completed was to purchase (trade for) the contracts of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto for prospects? Since that time, the Dodgers have been stockpiling prospects by holding onto to their best talent, drafting more talent, while purchasing less-than-free-agent-expensive controllable international talent from Cuba, Korea, the Dominican Republic, and Venezuela.
As Stan Kasten likes to say, the Dodgers have a nice core and are right to be excited. A full season of Corey Seager, an invigorated Joc Pederson, potentially Julio Urias, and a coaching staff that is excited and deep in talent in itself is nothing to scoff at.
Be patient—and is winning three straight division titles really a call for patience? It is a call for sanity in expectations.
5. Huge 2018 free agent class of talent. The Dodgers might be prepping to sign Bryce Harper and much more. Think the Dodgers might kick the tires around a bit? As of today, only Clayton Kershaw’s contract will be on the books, and he has an opt-out clause that off-season, leaving only $3.5 million in money owed that winter.
6. Other teams can have the long contracts for a lot of years and money. How is CC Sabathia doing for the Yankees? Justin Verlander for the Detroit Tigers? Or Kevin Brown back in the day for the Dodgers?
Let us ask that same question of Greinke, Price, and Cueto in the near future.
Why did the Dodgers pass on Greinke, Price, and Cueto, plus many more free agent pitchers in 2015? It is because the Dodgers have a surplus of starters under contract and one of the best farm systems in Major League Baseball with more starters and relievers.
Remember when the Dodgers won six World Series titles between 1955-1988? They won because of a stacked farm system based on the Branch Rickey model. We wish Greinke and Cueto the best, but their arms for the dollars and years requested was not a wise investment for the Dodgers.
As for Price, having four lefty’s (Clayton Kershaw, Brett Anderson, Hyun-Jin Ryu (when back from surgery), and Alex Wood) in a starting rotation is never a good idea with a Division and League stacked with right-handed bats.
We guessed that Greinke would sign elsewhere and for the most money available. We also opined previously why the Dodgers should be weary of Cueto with his age, arm, and post-season troubles.
7. The Big Fake! The Dodgers are in a great position to pounce or stay put. This is a luxury not seen with many sports franchises. Again, Stan Kasten has preached longevity and dynasty. These are great things to be excited about.
We would not be surprised if the Dodgers faked other teams into spending beyond their limits by driving up the price on free agents to benefit themselves in the short-term and the long run. Wall Street money and mind, meet Moneyball. Good work!
NEXT: Stan Kasten Speaks About Dodgers’ Winter Meetings
The biggest complaints during the past two seasons were that we couldn’t hit the ball and lack of reliable relievers. Perhaps Andrew and Zaidi are going in this direction to pick up and replace aging outfielders. I don’t see Eithier(thanks tho) coming back, Crawford is trash. Van Slyke could be an everyday guy.
Yes we lost our second Ace and boy was it great to watch, but we still are fielding the same team essentially that won can win the west once again.
Van Slyke would be a good everyday… Somewhere else. He’s an average defender and yes he can absolutely crush the ball but he tends to swing at a lot of bad pitches. He should be a good trade piece.
Good article!
Well let’s see. Horible aging outfield, except question mark puig and 210 hitting joc. Questionable 3rd base and shortstop, no second base at all, aging 1st base questionable catching, no bullpen except closer and questionable starting pitching. That pretty much sum up the 2016 dodgers? Ah but we have prospects!
This article would give me some “hope” if the past trades this front office weren’t such duds. The Dodgers have some benefits from the trades but most ended up failing in the roles the team needed the most. The trade of Dee Gordon was disappointing to me because the running game is sorely lacking with the Dodgers. It appears that the American League coaching styles we’re shoehorned into the dugout and the results were mostly apparent during critical coaching strategies. Mr. Evans paints a good picture but it has little ability to instill confidence. Forgiveness and looking the other way are much easier when you’ve experienced some success in the past. ” This is only the 2nd year” is not a pardon, its an excuse. If the front office wants Dodger fans to blindly follow them into the staff they mingle together they better shock us with their trading talents and find the “hidden gems” they say they are trading for. They haven’t done that so far. Maeda is not even realistic as a point of discussion in order to down play the loss of Greinke and Cueto to teams in the same division. BLAH! Point Not Made.
We get carried away with “prospects”. Out of our “outstanding” prospects in the last 10/12 years we have Clayton and ??? The failure rate of a first round pick is approx 50%. The failure rate of price is?? Figure out which 3 or 4 of our prospects may make it and use the others to aquire some additional talent. Let’s not forget joc (although it may be early) but top prospects that crash and burn rarely come back after the league figures them out.
And if I hear about year 2018 once more I will puke
nodrog60 Really? I am guessing you just started following baseball last year because Dodgers almost always have homegrown players that end up being all-stars.
Ever heard of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier? How about Chad Billinglsey? Dee Gordon, maybe? I am sure you know of Kanley Jansen and Jonathan Broxton, right? and…. I am SURE you know Corey Seager and Joc Pederson, correct?
Let me know when you find another franchise or team that can produce this many talented players and more without having a top 10 pick in the past 20 years OTHER THAN Clayton Kershaw (#7 overall in 2006).
Do some research before you spew nonsense.
WenSheld Dee Gordon trade may not look good to the casual fan (like yourself) but it provided the Dodgers a lot of depth in 2015 instantly. They were able to swing Andrew Heaney for Howie Kendrick (BA .295 as everyday 2B); Enrique Hernandez filled in a lot for Howie and Turner and batted .307 with 7 HR in 72 games. Oh and Enrique is only 23 y.o. Let’s not forget that Chris Hatcher was involved and he provided a 3.69 ERA in 49 appearances as middle relief. That’s an amazing win/win for both teams. So that’s already one good trade for the Dodgers by the front office.
Friedman actually pulled off an even better trade. Again, most casual fans only saw the biggest name and not anything else. Matt Kemp trade. Friedman sold Kemp at his peak value. Who did he get for an aging super expensive outfielder (still owed roughly $60 million until 2019)? YASMANI GRANDAL! All-star catcher this past season and he’s still 27 years old. Low average but high OBP player with power. Not to mention, Dodgers could still make even more off of that trade considering Zach Effin is still only 21 playing at AA level and Wieland is 25 and could be used as a middle reliever.
Thus far, Friedman is basically 2 for 2 on blockbuster deals. He’s so far held off on the urge to re-sign fan favorites like Zack Greinke and Hanley Ramirez at the end of their peaks. Greinke at 31 is not worth $32 million a year and Hanley signed for $22 million and he looks like he’s on the decline.
So I don’t know about people rooting for the Dodgers blindly but it seems to me most people are blind about how great Freidman has been in his 1st full year with the Dodgers so far.
DodgerBlues WenSheld Casual fan? By your standards maybe. I was born in LA and have followed the Dodgers even after moving the the enemy territory. (SF). I grew up watching the great Walt and Tommy days. So I’ll ignore your personal evaluation for now. So you being a Friedman fan you point out the few great aspects of the trades. Yasmani was a great pick up and I really like him. Zach Eflin was traded to the Phillies for Rollins. SO that is a moot point. Wieland MAY work something out but a 8+ ERA in 8 innings tells a story that I’m not ready to scream for. Yes he is a control pitcher that could be a good late reliever but that is only scouting opinions that are a few years old. Kike is a refreshing spirit and he reminds me of Oaklands Eric Byrnes so I’m waiting to see where he will lock into the 2016 team. And LIKE Byrnes, I have a feeling that Kike will only excel if he plays more than 130 games in the year. But I could be wrong. I liked Kendrick … but lets talk about the Dodgers ex 2nd baseman Dee and what a loss that was. Kendrick declined the Dodgers offer of 15.8 for one year so the Dodgers may not get him back. Hatcher seemed to have Mattingly’s faith and he worked out his issues to have a nice 2nd half. But a new coaching staff may or may not have the same faith. We will see what roll Hatcher earns for 2016. I believe he has a good chance in the bullpen. We can’t forget Latos. HUGE bust along with Johnson. Both are no longer a Dodger. (and I was rooting for Johnson to turn it around) So forgive me for having an overly critical opinion about Friedman. I’m sorry that my Dodger Blue blood isn’t up to snuff. But try walking around in a Joe Ferguson Dodger jersey in San Francisco and you may see my source or annoyance with some of the recent “magic” that Friedman has done. I don’t get much credit with three first place finishes compared to 3 recent World Series.
Dodger blues Really? We’re you having trouble following the conversation? My comments were about the high failure rate of first round picks and therefore prospects. I also where our “outstanding prospects” of the past 10/12 years were. You named Either, Kemp, and Gordon all fine 4th round draft picks and Janen (an undated free agent), but I don’t believe any of them were top 50 prospects. And the jury is out on Seger and Peterson. So if we have one first round, top prospect in 10/12 years how could we believe we have 4/5 front line pitchers in our farm system? Stats say 2 or 3 will bust. My point was let’s trade a few prospects and fix some of our problems now. And we have lots of them.
nodrog60 Your posts are really incoherent so it is pretty difficult to follow. Dee Gordon was #26 and #46 top prospect. Corey Seager and Joc Pedersen were both in the top 10 prospects before 2015. And Kemp, Ethier and Jansen were all top 100 before being sent to the majors at a young age. That top 100 list is nice but it’s for the fans. Front offices have their own scouts and grade players on their own scales.
Once again, it is never smart to sell the whole farm to get one or two players. I never believed that spending a ton of money on one or two high profile free agents was a great idea either. I see many Dodger fans freaking out because our rivals in the Giants and Diamondbacks are buying players left and right and giving away top prospects. If you remember, same situation occurred last offseason with the Padres stacking their lineup with big names like Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, Matt Kemp, Wil Myers, etc. Look how that turned out? Meanwhile, Royals have developed their team through their farm system while slowly acquiring pitchers via trades and filling in holes. That has resulted in multiple trips to the World Series.
Dodgers need to mimic that type of team build and that’s what Freidman is seemingly doing.
DodgerBlues WenSheld WenShld, I respect your depth of knowledge and your analytical approach, though it would be more becoming if you didn’t feel the need to name call or put down those who disagree with you.
I think you’re viewing the Gordon trade through rose colored glasses. The Dodgers acquired some depth, but Hatcher basically had one good month and was pretty terrible before September. It’s not clear whether Hernandez is an everyday player. We will have a better idea when he gets his shot at the everyday second base job. Will he ever be as good as Gordon? I think we have to rate that trade as slightly in favor of Miami, with the possibility it will work out in the long term.
I agree Friedman did well spotting Grandal, although Grandal has a troubling tendency toward injury. Props also to the FO for rebuilding the farm system.
But saying Friedman is “great” overlooks his many misjudgments.
Emblematic are his efforts at building a starting rotation. He balked at the huge contract Max Scherzer got last year and understandably so. But then, in attempting to fill out the rotation he bungled repeatedly. The Brandon McCarthy signing was probably the worst FA signing of last year. Anderson paid off, but as his innings pitched mounted he fell apart. His terrible start in game 3 of the NLDS arguably was the key game in the series. Imagine if the Dodgers had had Scherzer starting that game. Then there were numerous pitchers acquired who were coming off injuries, like Beachy, and who contributed virtually nothing.
But the crowning blow was the mid-season trade in which Friedman ate the $28 million bonus he’d just paid Hector Olivera, gave away other assets and wound up with the horrible Matt Latos, Johnson and Alex Wood, who is young and may improve but most likely is a number four pitcher at best.
When you count up the salaries paid their players, players who played for other teams and bonuses and contracts paid for and discarded, the Dodgers spent almost $90 million last year for starters not named Kershaw, Greinke and Ryu. That’s not an efficient use of resources. Put another way, that would have paid for the first three years of Scherzer’s contract.
Finally there is the Kershaw issue. Kershaw can opt out of his contract after the 2018 season. That gives Friedman a very real deadline. Kershaw desperately wants to win a World Series and if the Dodgers aren’t in position to do that by 2018, he will bolt for a team that gives him a better chance to win. Friedman will then be known as the guy who wasted Kershaw’s prime years building for an imagined future rather than going all out to win right away. Not a good legacy.
Yes, it’s risky to pay big money, long term contracts to aging players. It shouldn’t be done often. But that doesn’t mean it should never be done. Look at what Epstein is doing in Chicago. He has a home-grown core, but is augmenting it with strategic free agent signings, some times at questionable terms (Zobrist). I would like Friedman to do the same. Relying strictly on your farm system is also a risk. Look at the Twins. Heck, look at the Rays. Not contenders. Even the Royals made major moves at the trade deadline last year to put them over the top.
The Dodgers can afford to maintain a good farm system and indulge in free agency. The reason most fans are down on Friedman is that he seems to be following the same system he used in Tampa, which was to never sign big name free agents and to never trade prospects. But L.A. is not Tampa Bay. The goal there was to contend and keep down salaries. The goal here is to win a World Series. When confronted with this, he adopts a condescending tone and talks about the long term. But the fans are understandably impatient. If he can’t deliver in the next couple years, Friedman may not be around for the long term.
Excellent article Jeremy, thanks. It gets so tiring to see reactionary, short-sighted fans who don’t see the big picture and buy into the sensationalism that the mediots propose.