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Tossing 2014 Aside, Realistic Expectations For Joc Pederson In 2015

Joc Pederson

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If Pederson does in fact post similar numbers to those, he will certainly win the NL Rookie of the Year and might even receive a few MVP votes. To compare, ZiPS projects him to hit .239/.337/.420 with 22 home runs, ultimately being worth 3.3 WAR, while Steamer thinks he’ll record a .705 OPS with 20 home runs and being worth 2.2 WAR.

If there’s anything in common between these three projection systems, it’s that Pederson will hit plenty of home runs, draw many walks, and provide solid defense throughout the season. The strikeouts will be there, but who doesn’t want a player with tremendous power, excellent plate discipline, and near-elite defense?

And while it wouldn’t be fair to immediately compare him to Kemp, Bill James projects him to slash .289/.353/.495 with 25 home runs. Keep in mind those statistics were based on if Kemp was still a member of the Dodgers, so it’s not unreasonable to expect a decline with his transition to Petco Park. Even though those stats look awfully similar to Pederson’s, his poor defense and health concerns vastly separate the two in terms of overall value for the 2015 season.

With Spring Training approaching, it seems inevitable that center field is Pederson’s job to lose with Yasiel Puig slotting back to right field. Should Pederson struggle, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him begin the season in Triple-A, judging by Don Mattingly’s comment that him sitting on the bench doesn’t make sense.

Pederson doesn’t expect to be handed the job, either — something he’s stated multiple times this offseason with the most recent time coming at Dodgers FanFest on Saturday.

The only other options for the center field job are recently acquired Chris Heisey and Andre Ethier, who is surprisingly still on the roster. It obviously wouldn’t be ideal for either of them to start, as a big part of the decision for trading Kemp was to free up a spot in the outfield for Pederson.

No matter what happens, Pederson is figured to be a large part of the Dodgers’ plans for this upcoming season and many, many seasons after that. From his outstanding power, to his impressive patience at the plate, and of course, his Gold Glove-caliber defense, it’s no wonder why Los Angeles covets him so much. He has all the makings of the next exciting rookie to take MLB by storm, and 2015 could very well be the year we see that.

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16 Comments

  1. Well if we can get 20 HR, 250, 25 SB great defense and good plate discipline with a decent OBP I am sure we all would be thrilled. He would probably win the Rookie of the Year award or be in the running. If Grandal can hit 265, 25 HR improve his pass balls and survive base running issues the trade will turn out OK. And we will go deep int the post season.
    If not, next year we will be talking about another “Lost Year” the entire infield except for 1st base turning over and Greinke opting out. And what to do for a 2nd, 4th and 5 starter. If they are going to bring up Seager and Urias. What to do about Centerfield and the hole at catching. And the same old stuff about what to do about Crawford, Ethier etc. yuck.

    1. Well McCarthy is signed for 4 years…so he will be back…..and sorry T….you are in now way getting 25 HR’s or a .260 average out of Grandal……that’s nuts……he might be the starter, but every game Kersh pitches AJ will be in there,.,,,,Grandal might start 100 games,,,,,or 120…but no way are you getting those kind of numbers……235 16 dingers and maybe 55 ribbies at best…..plate discipline from Pederson? maybe….but he strikes out an awful lot and unless he gets better at that I say he will be lucky to hit .230….MLB pitchers will eat him up. Urias should stay in the minors at least 2 more years…..the kid is 18….rushing him is stupid. Seager will probably get a September call up….Rollins will be gone after this year and so will Uribe….I think they will try to resign Kendrick. One of 2 OF’s will be gone by mid season or the end of the year….Ethier or Crawford will get traded …..SVS is better off the bench…..

      1. Michael, I know that you are probably correct in your numbers. I am hoping that McGuire, who was a big swinger , can help Pederson pick his spots. McGuire has been a very sharp student of the science of hitting. I am hoping he can improve Pederson’s tendency to give away at bats. As for Grandal I think if he plays the entire year he hits 20 or over HR do we have a bet? By the entire year I mean over 110 at bats. Pederson if he gets 110 AB he goes 20HR also maybe a lower BA say 250 but 50-70 point higher OBP. IF they can do that and if McCarthy, Anderson and all the rest stay reasonably healthy we win the west. The playoffs are a crap shoot. A ball in the ribs, twisted ankle or another fluke injury or ball bounce can take you out of the playoffs because everyone in it has a great team. by the way thanks for the comments I really enjoy the back and forth. And I learn a lot.

        1. I will bet you on Grandal getting over 20 dingers….but if he does that in 110 at bats….wow……..that’s a homer every 6 plate appearances! I know you really mean games played… McGuire was a big swinger in his day. Remember his rookie year he hit under .200……but he had 49 HR’s. I have a little more faith in McCarthy than Anderson…I just think that is a dumb contract. I really believe they will end the year with someone else the #5 starter….I just pray it is not Nicasio. Pederson has talent. He has speed, a pretty good eye and power. But I still say, he has a bad spring and it is hello Okie City…They cannot afford to give him time to adjust, and by that I mean 50 games. They start out at 25-25 the fan base will be in full revolt. Pederson flops in spring, your OF will be LF Crawford SVS, CF Puig, RF Ethier Heisey…

          1. Yes thanks for the correction I meant games. OK so we have a bet on Grandal at over 110 GAMES he hits over 20HR’s. How about we bet that Pederson ends up playing at least half a year on the big club? As far as # starter I would hope it would be one of the kids. To me that is where you start off the kids is #5 so he can pitch and learn. If I were running the club I would have saved the 10 mill for Anderson and used one or more of the kids. But not Urias I agree he needs a couple of more years…

          2. By kids I assume you mean Lee or Reed. They are the only 2 even close to MLB ready. Ok I will take the Pederson bet too…..If he is shaky, no way they can wait 81 games. I for the teams sake hope I am wrong….the only plus I see in him going down is letting Ethier show he still has it so we can trade him. The kid I am looking forward to is at least 2 1/2 years away….Holmes….

          3. Yes with Holmes and Urias about 2 years away it bodes well for us in the long run. I like the plan as far as showcasing Ethier so we can trade him. But I really hope Pederson makes it. And Yes Lee, Reed and De Leon in the BP.

          4. Not this year…that would be really wishful thinking..this ownership needs to win NOW. Those kids not the answer this year…..now they do not get the WS this year….blow it up and use the kids

          5. Yes I agree. I was thinking it is very Machiavellian to make OK City the AAA Home. I spent a year in the TX Pan handle in the AF and I would have done anything to get the HE## out of there. That entire TX, OK, Ark area is really one you have to be born in to stand. Also spent a year in Mississippi in tech training for Electronics what a culture shock for a kid from SoCal. I had thought the North had won the war! Found out different when I got to MS. Talk about a Third World Backwater, Lord.

          6. I drove a truck for over 30 years and have been that area many many times. I was stationed at Ft Bliss when I was in the army when I was not overseas…..The El Paso team was in the Texas league….a Cubs franchise when I first got there. In 1973 when I came back from Germany, the Dodgers had made it their AA team…called them the Sun Dodgers….only guy I remember from that team making the bigs was Lee Lacy..In 74 they became an Angel affiliate….changed the name to Diablos…The owner was Bing Russell……Kurt’s dad…also an actor. And get this,.,,,,,one of the top prospects was….wait for it……Kurt Russell…..he was the 2nd baseman…..He was hitting like .563 when a guy took him out on a DP and ruined his shoulder….end of baseball career…..Other guys who made the majors from that team….Ron Jackson…..Frank Tanana,

          7. I covered TX, CO, Utah, Montana etc along with my current territory CA, AZ,NV and NM. I like El Paso and love Austin. Western Hill area. But the rest of TX you can have. Had to live in Houston for a year Wow Huge Trailer Park on a swamp.

          8. Wow I remember Lee Lacy and Tanana. I agree if we do not make the WS this year use the kids. They will blow up the left side of the IF next year anyway. I agree they sign Kendrick.

  2. The infield will turn over again next year but is that really a bad thing? Seager will man one of the slots and hopefully we can sign Moncado to slot in another. Line-ups change, players come & go for a multiplicity of reasons but it can be a good thing too!

    1. Yes I agree and the Dodgers are due for change on the Left side of the infield. Uribe’s contract will be over and Rollins I am pretty sure they do not sign them. Seager comes in but yes it will be interesting what they do. Do they get someone to cover third or so they get a place holder for Seager at third? These guys are all about defensive metrics. SS is a key position so you really want someone that can cover the ground. Does Seager fit that description I do not know. I frankly doubt it. I think he is too big no matter what they say to cover SS effectively and they should put him at third and get a young guy. Or a veteran if they sign Moncado that can hold the place similar to what Rollins and Uribe are doing now.

  3. A lot of pressure to put on a raw rookie. He did good at AAA, but that’s not the majors….right now he strikes out too much. If he has a lousy spring your CF will be Puig again, with Ethier moving into right as the starter. With Heisey and SVS the swing guys.

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