The baseball pre-season is all about predictions. Who will be the best and worst teams? Who will improve the most? Are any teams going to regress? Well, PECOTA (per Baseball Prospectus) updated their predictions for team records in 2018. And it looks like the Dodgers are not expected to regress much at all. After winning an MLB best 104 games in 2017, the Dodgers are predicted to win 99 games in 2018. PECOTA predicts them to win the NL West handily by 12 games over the Arizona Diamondbacks. And those 99 wins will be the same as the Astros predicted win total.
Happy PECOTA Day! If you're ready to dive into this year's projections, click here to get started: https://t.co/sHrogvDRqt
— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) February 7, 2018
Certainly, this should not come as a surprise to anyone. The Dodgers have been fortunate in their losses, with free agency departures of set-up man Brandon Morrow (though a good one to boot), and a rental pitcher in Yu Darvish (again a good rental at that). Replacing Darvish shouldn’t prove to be too difficult of a task. Though it would be great to have him back in the rotation, the Dodgers have the depth and talent to replace him. It was tough to lose Morrow to the Cubs, but relief pitching is so volatile and ultimately easily replaceable. So there clearly isn’t much concern over seeing him leave. Other departures like Adrian Gonzalez or Curtis Granderson do not move the needle backwards as they contributed very little last year.
With most of the 2017 roster returning and the continual stream of young talent from the farm system, it is easy to see why PECOTA still has the Dodgers as the best team in the Majors. Though predictions do not always pan out, it’s still comforting seeing they favor our Boys in Blue. And with that in mind maybe, just maybe, they can return to the Fall Classic bring a title back to Los Angeles.
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